Brent Axe of Syracuse dot com has written a very interesting online article about the chances the 13th seed Montana Grizzlies have to beat the 4th seed Syracuse Orange.

Axe cites research by Peter Tiernan of CBS Sports, who has determined that the Grizzlies have a 38% chance of scoring the upset due to several factors.

According to Tiernan:

"The key indicators of a 13 seed Cinderella are coaching, balance, momentum and scoring margin. Thirteen seeds that 1) are led by coaches who’ve been to the dance before, 2) get between 32 and 71 percent of their points from guards, 3) have an average scoring margin above 4.7 points and 4) won between seven and nine of their last 10 pre-tourney games are 16-26 (.381). All other 13 seeds are 8-62 (.114)."

Axe writes that "Montana comes in with a higher percentage of pulling an upset than your average No.13 seed. "